LONG TERM MARKET SELECTION STRATEGY COULD TILT TOWARDS UNCONVENTIONAL MARKETS

Ace Mutelo
Manager: Information Systems
Livestock and Livestock Products Board of Namibia

Global consumption

Generally, global food consumption is predicted to grow by 1,2% over the next decade due to growth in population and income. Global meat consumption is expected to increase by 12% by 2033. As a result, global average daily meat protein consumption is expected to grow by 3% – an extra 0,5 kg edible retail weight equivalent. China’s role in driving global food and agricultural consumption is weakening while India and South East Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos, Brunei, Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines, Cambodia, Singapore and Malaysia) are expected to expand their global consumption share due to increases in income. On the other hand, population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will significantly account for growth in global consumption over the next decade.

Global production

Overall meat production is expected to grow slowly over the next ten years but with differences across species, favouring poultry. Global beef consumption is predicted to grow by 1,1% due to higher animal carcass weights, improved animal genetics and farm management practices. The main contributor to this growth is China’s technological improvements. India is also poised to be one of the main contributors to increased production due to better infrastructure such as export-oriented meat processing plants.

Trends

Covid-19 induced shifts in consumption, such as less dining out in favour of home cooking and a shift towards more affordable protein. However, the international meat secretariat (IMS) asserts that consumers with higher incomes are still prepared to pay more for premium meat. In the case of the European Union (EU), there is a projected shift from beef, pork and sheep meat towards poultry. Although Chinese dependency on non-ruminant meat imports is expected to decrease, the country will remain the biggest single market for meat. It will be crucial in determining the strength of the global meat economy, with its market share expected to be 16% by 2033. North and South America are projected to account for more than half of global meat exports by 2033 with the United States and Brazil accounting for 20% each. Argentina, Australia, Brazil and Thailand are expected to record the most significant increase in global meat exports and will benefit from favourable exchange rates and animal feed availability. The EU’s global meat export share will continue to decline to reach 15% by 2033. On the other hand, environmental concerns have led to the introduction of the EU deforestation regulation (EUDR) which is expected to see shifts in supply composition.

Implications

The EU is currently the most important market for Namibian beef. However, these regulatory developments related to the preservation of the environment and long-standing health concerns, could affect meat import demand and should be monitored to mitigate the impact of dependency on the EU market. Diversification of markets could reduce the risk of dependency. Market exploration in India and South East Asia over the next decade could open insights into profitable alternative markets for Namibia – a country that uses a niche marketing strategy. On the other hand, African market prices may see higher meat prices due to a positive population-driven shift in demand. In this regard, Namibia should examine opportunities that may be available in the AfCFTA, especially in countries with meat deficits and favourable economic growth prospects. The Namibian presence in the Chinese market should be deepened as China will remain a significant meat market with price prospects in high-end markets expected to remain positive over the next decade.

Conclusion

Comparative levels of demand and supply in Namibia’s markets will partially dictate regions with higher expected beef and sheep meat prices. Regions with growing consumption in comparison to declining production will likely observe higher prices while those with decreased consumption and expanding production will likely experience lower beef and sheep meat prices. Since 2021, a recovery in meat production in China has led to reduced import demand and lower international meat prices compounded by an increase in production in South America. As India, South East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa become growth points in terms of demand, more exploratory focus should be allotted to these markets over the next ten years to ensure their full exploitation.